March 11, 2025

We overestimate the negative consequences

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If a given strategy has no downside and low effort, then you should do it immediately.

That’s a no brainer. Instead of planning and analyzing and debating, simply try the strategy, and see what happens.

There is wisdom in taking action when the potential rewards far outweigh the effort and risk.

I learned this lesson working for a variety of tech startups, both early, mid and late stage. Companies like that have a bias for action and an experimentation mindset. Taking quick, low risk actions to test ideas is precisely how they provide small victories and build momentum.

What’s exciting is, the principle applies beyond the business world. All of us are faced with a number of opportunities each week to take action on our no downside/low effort strategies.

But the challenge is perceived risk. Because even if there’s no actual downside, we inflate potential dangers in our minds. We overestimate the negative consequences. Those things may or may not be true, but the bottom line is, they create a distorted view that leads to unnecessary action.

Listen, I appreciate that fear of failure is real, addiction to planning is rampant, perfectionism is an epidemic, and inertia is a bitch. Not everyone is born with a bias for action.

But in my experience, once you get in the habit in making minor investments, a few of them start to have positive outcomes. And then the flywheel starts ramping up. You overcome your inertia of inaction.

By taking action, you gather feedback, both positive and negative. Small wins build momentum. They reinforce your sense of progress and success. You become less likely to overthink things.

And you prove to yourself that consistent action, even in small doses, can lead to high payoffs.

Are you taking quick, low risk actions to test ideas in every part of your life?